Without resources of deposits, average small the lesser institutions leave the companies without credit. This insurance, however, does not guarantee the loans of the banks, if borrowed of loans they will not have as to quit them. Without the retaken one of the credit, the performance of the economy will be still more fragile, the unemployment will grow and this only will make to aggravate the insolvency picture. Unhappyly, the insolvency must grow still more. This is the expectation of the agents with regard to uncurling of the impacts of the crisis. Still an increase of the unemployment is waited and also a fall of the income. This speculative expectation if justifies for the sazonalidade of the behavior of the delay in the physical people. In general, the insolvency withdraws in the end of the year, stops later presenting growth in the first months of the following year.
The peak, in general, happens in May. Already they start to appear, however, evidences of that the loss of job also started to have influence. Research carried through for the Trade association of So Paulo (ACSP) points that the main reason of the insolvency in the last month was the unemployment, cited for 48% of the heard people. In as place uncontrols it appears it of expenses (12%). Although this, the research indicates that 65% of the searched ones they do not meet dismissed. The estragos have been bigger in institutions without an adequate management of risk, that is, without modeling statistics, politics credit, wallet segmentation and an adequate collection. A good notice is that the data of delays in Brazil, although the trend of high, not yet is considered explosive. Moreover, it is in relatively not very superior platforms to the presented ones in the remaining portion of the world, as giving of Fundo Monetrio Internacional (FMI), in the report ' ' Global Finance and Stability Report' ' , of October of 2008.O Brazil it presents index of 3,4% – as given of the Central banking of February – sufficiently next to countries as Argentina, India and France.
Already countries as Japan and Spain were in lower levels, according to data of Deep the relative ones to the last year (to see table to the side). The indicative numbers are only e, as the proper report points, cannot be compared between the countries. This because each nation possesss criteria and methods of attainment of the sufficiently singular information. But they can point that the behavior in Brazil is similar of other nations. The trend of high also is the same one. In Spain, for example, the delays had gone up of 0,6% for 1,1% enter the end of 2006 and April of 2008. In the United States, given more recent they point more than that these indices had gone off in the last months, with respect to 4% in some segments of the credit to the consumption. The average tax surpassed 3.2% in the end of the year passed, according to data of the American Bankers Association.A depth and the reach of the credit crisis is determinative for the pressures in the system, said the FMI. The data suggest despite the decurrent countable decreases of the insolvency in such a way in the mortgages how much in the loans of consumption in the United States they must be records. Of any form, as it said the saudoso robot of seriado ' ' Lost in the Espao' ': DANGER! DANGER! Bibliography: Periodical Economic Value of 30 of March of 2009Jornal Economic Value of 08 of April of 2009